FIVE Reasons Why England WILL Win Euro 2012

1. No Expectations

Between 1996 and 2010, the confidence among the English press and public was unmatched by any other nation. We were going to win every tournament because we had the best players, the luckiest managers, David Beckham's right boot, Wayne Rooney's fearlessness, Rio's braids, Peter Crouch's hair pulling abilities etc. The golden generation was born, but failed to achieve again and again and again. And now they are no more.

A new generation is born, made up of some of the old: Liverpool legend Steven Gerrard and Chelsea's disorderly duo John Terry and Ashley Cole; some of the new: the much maligned Jordan Henderson and the much hyped Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain; and some true English grit: Tottenham's Scott Parker and City's James Milner.

It's not as attractive on paper as it was 10 years ago, but this is a good thing. This new generation can be fearless. No-one (apart from me) reckons they can go beyond the quarter finals. It's a 'win-win' situation (unless they get humiliated by Ukraine, in which case it's very much 'lose').

2. Anti-Football is the New Football

If England win every game of the Euros 1-0, no-one will complain. Roy Hodgson will have his side so gloriously organised, that the likes of Franck Ribery, Arjen Robben and Andres Iniesta will dread playing England. Seriously. Imagine having James Milner and Scott Parker harassing you every two minutes, and that's before John Terry's even within 10 metres of you.

The Belgium game has taught us that England will sit and frustrate the opposition, and then use the likes of Young, Welbeck, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Walcott and Defoe to counter-attack, grab a goal and then defend, defend, defend. Gloriously.

I might put a bet on England winning every game 1-0.

3. The Chelsea Factor

If it can work for Chelsea, it can work for England. I still lie awake some nights wondering how exactly they beat Barcelona. It defies logic. But on that fateful night at the Nou Camp, Di Matteo got his tactics spot on. And they did it again in the final. Football isn't about possession, chances created, corners won etc, it's about who gets more goals.

If England get injuries and/or red cards, the Chelsea lads can remind the side what their 10 men did against Barca, or what their depleted squad managed against Bayern.

The likes of John Terry and Ashley Cole can bring their winning mentality to the national team. If it goes to penalties, England will win. Even against Germany.

4. Steven Gerrard Will Inspire, Wayne Rooney Will Return

With the unfortunate departure of Frank Lampard and Gareth Barry due to injury, a HUGE responsibility has been placed on the shoulders of our favourite Scouser (Gerrard, not Rooney). Luckily, Stevie G LOVES responsibility. Remember in 2005 when he won the Champions League single-handedly for Liverpool? And don't tell me Traore, Smicer and Luis Garcia had anything to do with it.

Now Liverpool are rubbish, and Stevie probably won't get another opportunity to lift a proper trophy (perhaps the Capital One Cup – COCup?), so now is his time to take the proverbial bull by the horns and lead England to glory.

Meanwhile, while England bravely and stubbornly hold France and Sweden to 0-0 draws, Wayne Rooney sits and ponders that time he kicked a Montenegrin, and prays that the Montenegrin-kicking incident won't be detrimental to England's hopes of qualification. Wazza returns for game three against the mighty Ukraine, and following a great season at United, he shall come into the side and inspire England to a glorious 1-0 win (Jordan Henderson with a 93^rd minute winner).

We therefore qualify for the knock-out rounds, beating Spain in the quarters, Holland in the semis, and then Germany in the final. Easy. Rooney with the winning penalty. A statue of Rooney is later unveiled outside Wembley.

5. It's been one of the years

I can't recall a season as bizarre as this one has been. The Premier League has thrown up some, quite frankly, ludicrous scorelines and situations, and if that wasn't enough, the 'Hollywood couldn't have made it up' end to the season eclipsed every other final day. And then the Chelsea thing happened. Crazy. I'd love to travel back to August and tell a group of football fans what's to come, and then see their reaction.

Well, guess what? It's not over yet. There's still a European Championship around the corner, and I can't accept that it will be a predictable tournament. Spain, Germany and Holland are the three favourites, but this is the year of weird. Something odd is going to happen. I can feel it.

England – Euro 2012 Champions.

My England Squad for Euro 2012

Roy Hodgson announces his squad for Euro 2012 tomorrow. Lots of tough decisions to make. Take JT and Rio? Leave one behind? Leave both?! Which strikers will he take? Who's injured/unwilling to play?

Here's my 23, with the following assumptions:

• Foster doesn't want to go
• Scholes wants to go (you never know!)
• Parker, Cahill, Walker and Bent are fit enough
• Roy decides John Terry is a dreadful person and a disruptive influence

KEEPERS

Joe Hart 

Scott Carson

Jack Butland

Additional Notes: We're screwed if Hart gets injured/suspended.

DEFENDERS

Rio Ferdinand

Ashley Cole

Micah Richards 

Gary Cahill 

Phil Jones

Leighton Baines

Kyle Walker 

Joleon Lescott

Additional Notes: This is the area where England are fairly blessed. Although you'd have to say there are no guaranteed starters at centre back.

MIDFIELDERS

Steven Gerrard (c)

Frank Lampard 

Scott Parker 

Gareth Barry 

Paul Scholes 

Adam Johnson 

Theo Walcott 

Ashley Young

Additional Notes: If Parker isn't fit, I'd chuck in Oxlade Chamberlain. Stewart Downing and Jordan Henderson are rubbish.

STRIKERS

Andy Carroll 

Wayne Rooney 

Danny Welbeck 

Darren Bent 

Additional Notes: My brother Grant Holt misses out, but only just. If Bent's not fit, brother Holt gets the nod. Sorry Crouchy.

And the starting XI for France on June 11^th (remember that Rooney's suspended):

4-2-3-1

Hart, Richards, Ferdinand, Lescott, Cole, Parker, Scholes*, Gerrard, Walcott, Young, Carroll

*If Scholes doesn't go, Lampard plays instead.

What do you think?

Fantasy Football Leagues - Where Geniuses Are Discovered...

Football fans love to get it right...

Whether it's through betting, competing in fantasy football leagues, or simply debating about last night's match with friends, a correct prediction can earn the football fan some invaluable bragging rights. It doesn't necessarily prove one's knowledge of the game (although most supporters like to think it does) but it allows the fan a moment of self-righteousness – the “I told you so”.

It's what makes football so exciting (and betting such a lucrative industry) – the unpredictable nature of 90 minutes of sport.

Most predictions and bets are educated guesses based on the punter's knowledge of the subject, alongside a 'gut feeling' and obviously the prize for getting it right – cash, or the short-lived respect of peers.

I'm a timid gambler; I'll only place a bet every now and then (someone get me a medal!) and even then it's just a quid or two. But I do enjoy the rush. I correctly predicted the first scorer in the Brighton v Watford game the other week (seriously, where's my medal?) and I was chuffed. For about half an hour I was the most knowledgeable football fan in the world. In reality, I picked a name out of a hat. Okay, it was one of the more likely scorers, but ultimately it was a guess.

When it comes to making predictions, I think I prefer fantasy football leagues. They offer fans the chance to prove their knowledge over the course of a season, and there's less of the 'wild stab in the dark' element that you can get with betting.

These leagues seem to have been going for years and years, but the last time I took part you couldn't do fancy things like transfers, joining private leagues, and swapping players in your squad on such a regular basis like you can now.

I'm now addicted, and my Saturday morning's have become devoted (slight exaggeration, only slight) to frantically deciding who should be my captain (who get double points). This decision is influenced by several key factors:

1. Who will my captain's opponents be? If Wayne Rooney is in my squad, and Manchester United are playing Wolves at Old Trafford, Wazza will almost certainly get the nod.

2. Who is in top form? If Fernando Torres scored a hat-trick last week, maybe he'll be extra confident tomorrow (this is a high-risk strategy – it is easy to be seduced by last week's points. Torres probably won't score).
3. Does the rival in my private league have that player in their team? My bold decision going into the final weekend of the season is to purchase Tottenham's Rafael Van der Vaart and make him my skipper. Very few of the other players in my private league have the Dutchman in their team, so if he has a good day (which he probably won't), I'll be one of the few to benefit from his points.

This new found addiction adds a new dimension to my weekends. I've always enjoyed the goals and drama that a Saturday afternoon brings, but now I'm also keeping tabs on how my selected eleven are getting on.

But I suppose this is where fantasy football has a down side. My interest in the actual football has been overshadowed by my obsession with getting it right. The shock of a Wigan win against Manchester United isn't enough for me anymore. I need to know if Victor Moses got the winner. If Moses got the winner, that's four glorious points coming my way. Let it be Victor! Oh….it was Shaun Maloney.

I'd rather ignore the frustration or joy that goes along with fantasy football, and concentrate purely on the drama of the day's football. The twists and turns of the Premiership make it the best league in the world. Let's focus on that, rather than all this gambling.

But we all know I'll be back next year. Fretting over whether Sergio Aguero should be captain. And if I end top of my private league, then you can ignore that last paragraph; I am the great all-knowing football genius. I look forward to receiving my call from the FA.

Ben Holt, Roy Hodgson's Number Two

If you can see past the fog of the John Terry saga, a decent England team is emerging

Amidst the chaos surrounding the FA's controversial decision to strip John Terry of the captain's armband, those of us watching football were treated to some terrific displays from some other Englishmen who hopefully will be representing their country in the summer.

What a pity that the Italian's weekend of scouting was overshadowed by this ongoing nuisance.

The whole situation has been handled disgracefully. John Terry shouldn't have been reinstated as England captain in the first place, but the FA have essentially found him guilty of racial abuse five months before he stands trial. And in doing this, Fabio Capello's already fading authority has taken another blow to the head.

Capello understandably doesn't like someone else doing his job, and his public show of dissatisfaction on Italian TV is another example of this horrible mismatch. Fabio and the FA should have broken up a long time ago. 

More worrying perhaps, is the division within the national team. England's two most experienced central defenders aren't talking for understandable reasons, and although everyone else is sensibly keeping quiet, there are views and attitudes within the squad that will be hard to conceal when they meet prior to the Holland friendly at the end of the month.

It's a dreadful mess, but it's not as if Ferdinand and Terry's inclusion in the squad is crucial. There are plenty of suitable alternatives. Lescott and Jagielka defended admirably in the fortunate 1-0 win against the world champions Spain, while Tottenham's Michael Dawson and Ledley King were immense last night in the goalless draw at Anfield. The watching Capello must've been impressed. Other central defensive options include Chelsea's new boy Gary Cahill and United's Phil Jones and Chris Smalling.

I doubt Capello will rule Ferdinand and Terry out of his summer plans, but neither have been particularly convincing for their clubs this season. Would it really be that bad if they were omitted?

Meanwhile, three other English performances stood out for me this weekend.

Danny Welbeck has been extremely impressive over the last few weeks, demonstrating pace, strength and composure against the top sides; something that Daniel Sturridge has struggled to do. Welbeck must be challenging Darren Bent for a starting place.

Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain has rapidly cemented his place in Wenger's side, proving in a handful of starts to be more effective than the frustrating Theo Walcott. Perhaps it's too early to be talking about the 18 year old as an England starter in Poland/Ukraine, but his maturity at such a young age is very promising. Capello's wildcard?

Scott Parker is certain to play an important role for England in the summer, whether as captain or not we shall see; I suspect not. But he performs tirelessly for Spurs every single week, and the England manager will want him wrapped in cotton wool until June.

These top performances certainly bode well for England supporters, but unfortunately the off the field headlines are obscuring our view of what's happening on the pitch. If you can see past the fog, a fairly decent England team is emerging.

The Road to the Amex - Interview with Tommy Elphick

When Brighton and Hove Albion defender Tommy Elphick was stretchered off on the final day of the 2010/2011 season, it was a shock to Seagulls fans to hear that the centre back had ruptured his Achilles tendon; the same injury as former England captain David Beckham suffered while on loan at AC Milan.

Achilles ruptures are most commonly seen among sportsmen in the latter end of their career, and so while unfortunate for the 34 year old Beckham, it wasn't a freak injury.

However, it was certainly an unusual injury for the 23 year old to pick up at this stage in his career.

“It's a real awkward injury – not really one you see at my age, but it has happened and it's a slow one, but it's coming along nicely, so not too long now”, Elphick told me back in September.

Unfortunately for the defender, who was awarded Brighton's player of the 2007/2008 season, a bad reaction to the initial surgery means he'll be out of action for the rest of the campaign in Albion's return to the Championship. Another slice of poor fortune for the Brighton born player, who was devastated to miss out on the club's first ever match at the £93 million American Express Community Stadium.

“That was the hardest thing for me, seeing the lads run out against Tottenham and Doncaster in the first few games. I was really gutted that I wasn't involved. It's not so bad if you haven't been picked through form because you've got someone to blame like yourself. But there's no rhyme or reason for the injury I've got and it was just really hard to swallow.”

But despite the latest setback, it's hard not to be impressed by his attitude and focus on getting fit.

His weekends are now spent watching sport, and when I join him once again early on a Saturday afternoon, he's flicking between the horse racing and the Championship match between Leicester City and Portsmouth.

He's knowledgeable and chatty, always more than happy to discuss his beloved Liverpool, and he welcomes the news that Blackburn have taken a shock 2-0 lead at bitter rivals Manchester United.

While he loves watching the Premier League, the Championship is his focus, observing players that he may come against next season (if Albion stay in the division), and that's a big part of his recovery.

“You have to maximise your time when you're out injured; do everything you can physically as well as stimulating the brain, watching as many games as you can. So at the moment I'll be watching Gordon and Dunky [Gordon Greer and Lewis Dunk – Brighton's current centre back pairing], seeing what they're doing and what they're not doing, and then you watch the strikers that you'll be playing against next season. So there's no excuse for not knowing who you'll be playing against.”

Elphick's mature approach to his injury is even more impressive considering the delay to his comeback. He was initially set to return to action by the end of last year, but an allergic reaction to the stitching used in the original surgery meant he required a second operation.

“It was a case of going out there and being opened up again, and just clearing everything out and doing it with a different material which dissolves over time. That's how it should have been done in the first place but it wasn't and I'm lucky enough to be in really good hands this time.”

Extremely good hands in fact: the hands of Finnish surgeon Sakari Orava who operated on David Beckham back in 2010, as well as double Olympic gold medallist Haile Gebrselassie and French World Cup winner Didier Deschamps.

With Elphick suffering no ill effects from the surgery last month, he can now concentrate fully on getting fit. While his Albion team-mates look to consolidate their place in the Championship over the next few months (or even better: achieve promotion to the Premiership), Tommy will be preparing for next season. In February he is set to continue his recovery at Lilleshall Sports Rehab unit in Shropshire, where he'll stay for four weeks, before returning to Brighton where he hopes to return to his maximum pace and strength.

Elphick's contract at Albion expires at the end of the year, but he's in talks with the club at the moment, and he's keen to put pen to paper.

“The manager and the chairman have been really good to me. I can't really comment on how long we're talking but it's all work in progress at the moment.”

Assuming there are no hitches with the contract negotiations, Elphick will be available to fight for his place in Gus Poyet's side next season. But for now he's concentrating on Albion's performance this year, as every win, loss or draw can affect what league he'll be playing football in when he returns.

The Seagulls have had a mixed first half to the campaign, topping the table after six unbeaten matches, but then slipping to 11th after a winless run which lasted nine matches. But Elphick is quick to dispute my claim that it's been an up and down season so far.

“I don't think it's been up and down, I think it's very much been up. 18 months ago, if you'd have said where we are now; it's unbelievable the work the gaffer and his staff have done.”

Two years ago, Albion were in serious danger of dropping into League Two: the fourth tier of English football. But now, they're just four points from the play-off places in a largely unpredictable division.

“We're in with a massive shout for the play-offs still. I think we're just one or two (players) away from being a solid top six side. But then we've had major injuries this year; I think once we get everyone back fit, plus if the gaffer decides to add in January, then watch out. How far we've come is magnificent.”

Elphick's optimism about the future of the club is justified, considering the progress made under the stewardship of Poyet, who moved down to the south coast in November 2009.

So it's a big unknown what the next campaign will bring for Elphick. Perhaps he'll be playing Premier League football. For now though, after a missing a full season, his aim is purely to be playing football again.

Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Hull City, Saturday 15th October, Kick-off: 5.30pm

Sports Saturday with Ben Holt, 2-6pm, Juice 107.2, www.juicebrighton.com

Follow us on Twitter: @sports_saturday

Listen to the podcast: mixcloud.com/sports_saturday

Build up to the game begins at 4.30pm, featuring interviews with Gus Poyet, Scotland striker Craig Mackail-Smith and full back Inigo Calderon.

 

Despite earning just a point from their previous four league matches, Brighton are still sat in the play-off positions, five points behind leaders Southampton. The last month has seen Albion's defensive frailties highlighted somewhat, with nine goals conceded in the last three games, and the international break will have been welcomed by many connected with the club.

Two weeks off to reflect and regroup; to analyse why their brilliant start has been halted.

That brilliant start featured impressive league wins at Cardiff, Pompey and Bristol City, as well as home victories against Doncaster and Peterborough. The summer signings were gelling; Buckley, Mackail-Smith and Hoskins all playing well and scoring important goals (when fit), and even Premiership sides were being truly tested in Carling Cup visits to the Amex.

Firstly, a memorable night in August, when Steve Bruce's Sunderland were deservedly put to the sword thanks to an extra-time winner from Mackail-Smith, and then a month later, a thrilling third round tie with Liverpool. A superb second half performance earned Albion plenty of admirers, if not the victory, and Craig Noone's energetic and skilful display earned himself a red shirt with his hero's name on the back.

Since that night, Brighton have played three – Leeds, Palace and Ipswich, and have only managed a point. Gus Poyet certainly wouldn't make excuses; his attitude has always been to fearlessly blame his own rather than external factors. He described the Ipswich match as “Premiership players against League One players” - the kind of honesty that a lot of managers would avoid.

It's far from a disaster. It's a blip. Only the most irrational Albion supporters would have expected a repeat of last season's performance. This is the Championship, and the fact that only Middlesbrough are unbeaten after ten games, suggests that even the very best sides in the division will at some stage struggle.

What is important now for Albion is to get their confidence back. The home defeat to Palace hurt a lot, and the 3-1 loss to Ipswich didn't help to ease the pain. They can consider themselves lucky to remain in such a positive position in the table, but a couple more defeats will see them closer to the wrong end.

Poyet's attitude is if it ain't broke, don't fix it. For six or seven matches, he hasn't felt the need to make many changes. Now perhaps is the time for Gus to move people around and take a look at other players, “When you have a bad run of results, you have a chance [to get in the team]”. Former Spanish international Vicente may now get a run in the side to show his class on a regular basis. He's a certainty to make his first home start against Hull City on Saturday evening, and Poyet will hope that his new star player will set the standard for the rest.

In contrast to Albion, Hull are in excellent form, with fourteen points from a possible eighteen launching them up the table into sixth, a place below the Seagulls. Craig Mackail-Smith will offer advice to his defensive team-mates about Hull striker Aaron McClean, who he knows well from their days together at London Road, whilst Robert Koren and Nicky Barmby offer Premiership and international experience.

Another tough game; they're all tough, but if Albion want to get back on track, now is the time to do it. A win could see them rise as high as 3^rd, a defeat – possibly mid table.

Portsmouth vs Brighton & Hove Albion, Saturday 13th August, Kick-Off: 3pm

Sports Saturday with Ben Holt, 2-6pm, Juice 107.2, www.juicebrighton.com

Follow us on Twitter: @sports_saturday

Listen to the podcast: mixcloud.com/sports_saturday
 
Build up to the game begins at 2pm, featuring interviews with Gus Poyet and midfielder Gary Dicker. From 3pm we'll have regular updates from Fratton Park from our Sports Reporter Loz, as well as all the latest from the Premiership and Championship.

 

Last Saturday's season opener against Doncaster Rovers was the perfect way to start life at the Amex. Over 20,000 people at Falmer enjoyed a thrilling last gasp win for Albion, as new signing Will Buckley became an instant fans favourite with two late goals to seal their first three points of the season.

Gus Poyet's team showed many qualities which would suggest they are well suited to life in the Championship: strength in depth, fighting spirit, patience; but even the most biased Seagulls supporter would struggle to argue that luck didn't play a huge part in Saturday's win. Rovers bossed the first half, and when Lewis Dunk's untidy challenge ended striker Billy Sharp's afternoon, Sean O'Driscoll's side lost momentum and couldn't find the form which gave them a deserved first half lead.

Things got worse for Donny when then lost another striker to injury, with James Hayter stretchered off after an accidental clash with Inigo Calderon. With all three substitutions made, Rovers went down to ten men, and Albion were able to grab a stoppage time winner.

But credit to Albion for making use of the good fortune that came their way. It might be a sign of things to come for the Seagulls; with the attacking strength on the bench, there are always options for Poyet if a goal is needed. It'll be interesting to see if they turn out to be the Championship's comeback kings this season.

The two players that arguably changed the game on Saturday both started the match on the bench. Whilst Will Buckley grabbed the headlines with his two goals, Craig Noone was equally effective, and provided the perfect through ball for Buckley's winner in the 98^th minute. Both men started Tuesday night's Carling Cup win over Gillingham, and with Buckley on the left and Noone on the right, the Gills defence were given a torrid time.

They compliment each other well, with Buckley's pace and strength, and Noone's trickery and vision; similar at times to watching Bale and Lennon at Spurs. With Kazenga Lua Lua a doubt for Saturday's trip to Fratton Park, we might get another opportunity to see what damage they can do, this time to the Pompey defence.

Whilst Albion have enjoyed two wins so far this season, Portsmouth haven't had the best of starts. They salvaged a point at Middlesbrough last weekend thanks to a last gasp Luke Varney equaliser, but then got outplayed by League Two Barnet as they were knocked out of the Carling Cup.

Despite Pompey's poor start, Steve Cotterill has plenty of experience and ability in his depleted squad, and Albion will need to show as much fighting spirit on Saturday afternoon as they did seven days earlier at the Amex.

Brighton & Hove Albion XI vs. Doncaster Rovers (6th August):

Ankergren, Greer (c), Dunk, Painter, Calderon, Bridcutt, Dicker, Sparrow (Buckley 75), Lua Lua (Noone 46), Barnes, Mackail-Smith; SUBS NOT USED: Brezovan, Vincelot, Navarro

Injury doubts:

Lua Lua - Hamstring

Hoskins - Hip

Championship 2011/12 Top Six Prediction...

Only an idiot would predict what's going to happen in the Championship this season.

With that in mind, here are my predictions for the Championship this season:

Champions: West Ham

With the players that the Hammers had last season, it was nothing short of a travesty that they ended rock bottom of the Premiership table. Under different circumstances, with a different manager and different chairmen, they would have finished comfortably mid-table. Ultimately, if things aren't right upstairs, it becomes harder to succeed on the pitch. You get the feeling that with Sam Allardyce in charge, there will be better communication at the club, and in Allardyce, they've got an experienced and tactically astute manager. He'll be keen to build a team, and grind out results where necessary.

They've also got some decent players; who stays and who goes is another matter, but you'd expect their squad to be strong at the end of August. They possess several talented young stars: James Tomkins and Jack Collison should be playing Premiership football, whilst Zavon Hines, Freddie Sears and Junior Stanislas have all got bright futures. Throw in the experience of Rob Green, new signing Abdoulaye Faye, and possibly Scott Parker (surely someone will snap him up though?), and it's a side far too good for the Championship.

And Kevin Nolan will be the league's best player this season.

STAR PLAYER: Kevin Nolan

ODDS TO WIN CHAMPIONSHIP: 4/1 Favourites

2^nd Place: Leicester

Only high expectations can stop Sven's Leicester City from getting back to the top tier this season. They've been busy this summer – nine additions to the squad, and they're not done yet, with the former England boss still targeting a striker. With Premiership experience from the likes of Michael Johnson (on loan from Man City), David Nugent (England's most prolific goalscorer – a goal a game!) and Paul Konchesky, you'd have to rate their chances of promotion pretty highly.

STAR PLAYER: Andy King

ODDS TO WIN CHAMPIONSHIP: 4/1 Favourites

Play-offs:

Nottingham Forest

Forest always seem to come close, and this year I fancy them to come close once again. They decided to part company will Billy Davies, and have brought in Steve McClaren to do what Davies couldn't. I think it's a shrewd decision from the chairman Nigel Doughty – the side needed freshening up, and the experience of McClaren could prove invaluable. He's still a man looking to rebuild his reputation, and I think he'll be able to get the best out of his players.

The former England and Middlesbrough boss is frustrated with the lack of signings over the summer, but there's still plenty of class, especially with the addition of Andy Reid, George Boateng, and Jonathan Greening. And if Lewis McGugan continues his form from last season, McClaren could have a successful first season as Forest manager.

STAR PLAYER: Lewis McGugan

ODDS TO WIN CHAMPIONSHIP: 14/1

Blackpool

The great entertainers of last year's Premiership season: it may have been an ultimately unsuccessful campaign, but Ian Holloway gained many admirers for his side's attacking style of play, and I don't see that changing this season. The loss of Charlie Adam to Liverpool was inevitable after a brilliant season, but his replacement Barry Ferguson brings plenty of experience and quality. Holloway has also signed Kevin Phillips from Birmingham, and you feel that Blackpool's style of play will suit the former Sunderland striker. I wouldn't be surprised to see him scoring 20+ goals, and that will go a long way in helping the Seasiders back to the top tier.

STAR PLAYER: Matt Phillips

ODDS TO WIN CHAMPIONSHIP: 16/1

Burnley

At just 33 years of age, Burnley boss Eddie Howe has impressed many in his short managerial career. Taking his old side Bournemouth from League Two to the summit of League One earned him many admirers, including the Clarets, who hired him in January of this year to replace Brian Laws. Last season's 8^th placed finish was satisfactory, but it was hard to judge Howe's efforts, as it was very much an inherited squad. He has a small squad of players to work with, but with the addition of two or three players, I believe the former Cherries boss can add to his already glowing reputation.

STAR PLAYER: Keith Treacy

ODDS TO WIN CHAMPIONSHIP: 25/1

Brighton

I predict this as much in hope as I do in expectation. It's a fantastic time to be involved with the club: glorious new stadium, record transfers, top manager, great style of football etc. So the place is buzzing, and so it should be. Last season, the Seagulls beat two Championship sides on their FA Cup run, showing that they are more than capable of competing at this level. However, this is set to be one of toughest Championship seasons ever, with so many big clubs looking for a top 6 place. Brighton have a lot of quality in the attacking areas, and if Gus can get the best out of the likes of Kazenga Lua Lua and Craig Mackail-Smith, they could do a Norwich with back-to-back promotions.

STAR PLAYER: Kazenga Lua Lua

ODDS TO WIN CHAMPIONSHIP: 18/1

Who'll get the goals?? 

If Shane Long stays in the league, he'll be up there on the top scorers list. Nicky Maynard will hit the back of the net for whoever he's playing for this season, whilst Brighton's record signing Craig Mackail-Smith scored 35 times in League One for Peterborough last season, and will want to prove himself at a higher level.

There's also a lot of former Premiership players around this season, and you'd expect the West Ham strikers to do well: Carlton Cole, Frederic Piquionne and Kevin Nolan should score plenty. Cardiff have got goals in them as well, with Robbie Earnshaw returning to his old club, and Ipswich's new striker Michael Chopra is always a threat.

THREE UP, THREE DOWN...

THREE UP: West Ham, Leicester, Forest

THREE DOWN: Coventry, Barnsley, Doncaster 

 

If we needed any more proof that Capello shouldn't be England manager...

Yesterday evening I uttered six words that I never thought I'd say:

“What a relief Montenegro only drew”

It really is a sorry state of affairs when the mighty English national team are struggling to top a group that features four other nations who have rarely, if ever, shocked the world of football with their quality.

Fair play to Montenegro. They've proved that they should certainly be taken seriously as a footballing nation; they started out as the lowest ranked team in Group G, and then in the space of a few matches became the 24^th best country at football, according to the people at FIFA. And FIFA don't get things wrong.

Wins against Wales, Bulgaria, and Switzerland, as well as a goalless draw against England at Wembley in October, have put Montenegro joint top of Group G, with only inferior goal difference preventing them topping the group. Three points last night in the return match against the Bulgarians would have put Zlatko Kranjcar's side into pole position to grab the automatic qualification for Euro 2012. However, Ivelin Popov cancelled out Radomir Djalovic's second half strike, and they were left to rue a missed opportunity.

Meanwhile, 1102 miles away, Fabio Capello was reflecting on two more dropped points at Wembley Stadium, after a lacklustre performance from his England side. It was the 2-2 draw against an impressive Swiss team that generously presented Montenegro the chance to top the group. But whilst it was a spirited performance from the visitors, once again it was shown that Capello and England are wrong for each other.

We all rejoiced when the seemingly stubborn Italian altered England's playing style for the 2-0 win against Wales. From the rigid and lifeless 4-4-2 formation, suddenly we were watching exciting, free flowing football with Rooney, Young and Bent as a three man attack. Naively, people (myself included) assumed that this could be the start of something beautiful, forgetting that the team we had just beaten were Wales. And not just any Wales team – a Wales team without the PFA Player of the Year, Gareth Bale.

Two and a bit months on, and our new lethal 4-4-3 formation was mercilessly unleashed upon the Swiss. Except, this time round, we were playing a pretty good side, and Wayne Rooney was suspended and getting his hair done. And for some bizarre reason, Capello opted to leave Ashley Young, one of the major plus points of the Wales match, on the bench, as James Milner started on the left. Arsenal's Theo Walcott was placed on the right, and Darren Bent kept his place to play through the middle.

After 35 minutes, England were 2-0 down, and Wembley was shocked into near silence, aside from the jubilant section of Swiss red that coated a large section of the stadium. It was two poor goals to concede as well; inept defending for the first, as Rio Ferdinand misjudged a Tranquillo Barnetta free kick, and then James Milner decided to leap out of a well placed two man wall, as the same Swiss midfielder curled another free kick past the despairing dive of Joe Hart.

It was two individual mistakes that embarrassed England, but in fairness, Switzerland weren't fortunate to have a two goal lead. The midfield trio of Parker, Wilshere and Lampard were struggling to get a foothold in the game, whilst Milner and the increasingly frustrating and frustrated Theo Walcott rarely threatened, leaving Darren Bent isolated.

England did manage to pull a goal back before half time, after the ever impressive Jack Wilshere was fouled in the area by fellow Gunner Johan Djorou, and Frank Lampard converted the penalty. The scoreline flattered England slightly, and at the interval Ashley Young was finally introduced, immediately impacting on the game with a neat finish to level the match. It was a better second half performance from the English, with the lively Young proving that Capello was wrong to leave him out of the side.

The most memorable moment of the match came in the 70^th minute, when Darren Bent was unable to convert a gilt-edged chance after the Swiss keeper Benaglio could only parry Ashley Young's effort to the striker. With the goal gaping, Bent fired the ball high over the crossbar, proving that he certainly isn't an England number nine. Replays of the opportunity made it all the more unforgivable, especially a particularly cruel camera angle which showed how much of the goal was available to the former Sunderland and Spurs forward. That miss kept the scoreline at 2-2, and that's the way it finished in North London.

So what did we learn? Well, 4-3-3 worked against Wales, but didn't really work against the superior Switzerland. Imagine what might have happened if England were playing Brazil or Spain – it doesn't bear thinking about! But formations aside, this still isn't a happy group of players, and it won't be happy until Capello leaves after the next tournament. With the players available to the Italian, it is fairly astonishing that England have failed to beat both Switzerland and Montenegro at Wembley Stadium.

Bad decisions and poor man-management skills are further damaging Capello's reputation, and although England will almost certainly qualify for next year's tournament, once they get there, they're in serious danger of getting embarrassed by better teams.

Football is run by people who don't understand passion...

Sometimes its frustrates me that football is run by people that don’t seem to understand the game. They don’t understand the passion that it evokes, and how important it is to both players and spectators. Season after season, I witness moments on the football pitch where bad decisions are made, and whether or not those decisions end up being pivotal, it annoys me that they could have been prevented.

One such moment that certainly wasn’t pivotal, occurred on Sunday afternoon in the match at the Reebok Stadium. Bolton’s Tamir Cohen was brought on for the final five minutes against Arsenal, and from a corner in the final minute, he headed home the winning goal. In honour of his late father Avi Cohen (a former Liverpool player) who was killed in a motorcycle accident, he took his shirt off to reveal a t-shirt with a picture of his father.

A poignant moment. However, referee Mike Jones was forced to caution the Israeli as removing your shirt is a bookable offence. I don’t blame the referee; I’m sure failure to show the yellow card would have resulted in Jones getting suitably punished for not following the guidelines.

In this instance, Cohen’s booking was irrelevant. Bolton won the game, and it was a fitting tribute to Avi Cohen. But what if there were different circumstances? What if it was a cup final, with thirty minutes remaining, and Cohen had already been booked? Referees can’t be sentimental, and surely it should make no difference what the scenario is. Therefore, he would have been sent off for displaying a genuine moment of emotion. Even if a player takes their shirt off for no real purpose other than to express passion, why is it deemed an offence worthy of a yellow card?

FIFA don’t know.

Law 12 - Fouls and Misconduct: "A player who removes his jersey when celebrating a goal must be cautioned for unsporting behaviour."

Yes we know that, but why?

FIFA don’t know.

Baring the torso? Potentially revealing something offensive underneath? Time-wasting? Inciting the crowd?! They all seem very unlikely and utterly ridiculous. Yet this is a rule which could play a major role in a game of football.

Here’s poor Eric Hassli, striker for the world famous Vancouver Whitecaps, getting a second yellow card for removing his shirt after scoring a penalty. (Hilariously, he has an identical shirt underneath to try and get away with it!)

There are some rules in football which I disagree with, but can sort-of understand why they exist. If you jump into the crowd to celebrate a goal, fans could possibly get crushed as they rush down to celebrate with the goalscorer. Therefore you deserve to get booked for risking the safety of the fans.

But I don’t believe there is any risk involved with removing ones shirt. It’s a moment of passion, and I can only assume that the people who make the rules don’t know what that is. They certainly don’t know what it’s like to score a goal.

I’m just glad that Tamir Cohen's had the opportunity to pay tribute to his father. And it only cost him a yellow card.   

The closest relegation battle in years - but who will survive?!

The top of the Premiership table appears to be fading towards a predictable conclusion; and whilst it is naïve to assume anything this season, it looks as though Arsenal’s frailties and Chelsea’s terrible mid-season spell have gifted an underwhelming Manchester United side their 19th league title.

If the finale to the title race turns out to be slightly anti-climactic, the battle to stay in the Premier League will more than makes up for it. I can’t remember so many teams fighting for their lives at this stage in the season - it is truly remarkable to see eight teams still in trouble with just seven games to go. Mick McCarthy got it spot on responding to a question regarding a sufficient points total for survival, “I just keep cracking on and hope we end up with more points than three other teams at least”.

Since the 1995/1996 season when the number of clubs competing in the Premiership was reduced to twenty, only Sunderland (1996/97), Bolton (1997/98), and West Ham (2002/03) have suffered relegation despite reaching 40 points. Considering all twenty teams this season have already reached the 30 points mark, 2010/11 may be another rare season where 40 points isn’t enough to survive.

So as we approach the run-in, let’s take a look at the sides still in danger, and whether they have what it takes to get enough points to stay in the division:

Wigan, current position: 20th, played - 31, points - 31

Momentum: The Latics have enjoyed a couple of decent results; first of all beating fellow strugglers Birmingham City with a last minute Maynor Figueroa strike, and then earning a point against Spurs on Saturday. Their next three matches are away from home, so understandably they’re everyone’s favourites to go down.

THAT player: Charles N’Zogbia - Wigan’s player of the season last year, and hard to argue against him winning it this time around. The Frenchman will need to be in top form to inspire his side for the remainder of the campaign.

Goals: Or lack there of. The league’s lowest scorers, and top scoring Hugo Rodallega has only managed 7.

Verdict: Relegated. The four points earned against Birminham and Spurs were vital, but with five of their remaining seven matches away from home, I can’t see Martinez masterminding a revival.

Wolves, current position: 19th, played - 31, points - 32

Momentum: Mick McCarthy’s side have generally played well all season, but have been unable to convert good performances into good results. But the last few weeks have seen them earn valuable points against Spurs, Blackpool, West Brom, and most recently, neighbours Aston Villa. Saturday’s defeat at Newcastle was a setback, and the loss of Kevin Doyle to injury is a massive blow, but their final seven games are against sides from seventh downwards, so if they can re-discover their good form, survival is a very real possibility.

THAT player: Jamie O’Hara - a really wise loan signing, and has already made an impact. Wears his heart on his sleeve and works incredibly hard for the team.

Goals: Mick McCarthy must be cursing his luck with Doyle ruled out for the remainder of the season, but the likes of Steven Fletcher and Sylvan Ebanks Blake will get goals, whilst Matt Jarvis will be on a high after his call up to the England squad.

Verdict: Safe, just. Mick McCarthy’s side have started to show a winning mentality which has been missing all season, and there’s enough talent in the team to win games.

West Ham, current position: 18th, played - 31, points - 32

Momentum: What a strange season it has been, especially at Upton Park. Back in January, it was reported that West Ham’s 3-0 defeat to Arsenal was Avram Grant’s last in charge. And then suddenly, he had the full backing of the board. Only those involved really know what was going on, but since that day, the Hammers have only lost two league matches, beating Blackpool, Stoke, and Liverpool along the way. The return of Thomas Hitzlsperger, and the signing of Senegalese striker Demba Ba have added an unexpected sense of optimism around the club. The manner of the defeat to Man United on Saturday was disappointing, but with crucial games against Wigan, Aston Villa and Blackburn still to come, there’s plenty for the Hammers to be hopeful about.

THAT player: Scott Parker should be an England regular in my opinion. He brings so much to the West Ham team, and without his passion and ability, they’d be relegated already.

Goals: Demba Ba has been a revelation - such a handful for defences, and his goals have been key to their current resurgence. Elsewhere, the likes of Cole, Piquionne, Hitzlsperger and Parker will all contribute with the odd goal.

Verdict: Safe. Why? Two words: Scott Parker.

Blackpool, current position: 17th, played - 31, points - 33

Momentum: As Ian Holloway’s side welcomed the new year, the Seasiders were in the top half of the Premiership, having experienced a wonderful first half of the season. Four months later, and Blackpool are in freefall, having gained just eight points from fourteen matches in 2011. If the league table started from January 1st, they would be rock bottom. Having said that, the recent 3-1 win against Spurs proves that this team are fearless and capable of getting results. The question is, can they find their 2010 form?

THAT player: Charlie Adam, who else? According to reports, he was minutes away from heading to Tottenham. Blackpool fans can thank their lucky stars that the move fell through, and he stayed in the north west. He seems to be key to everything good that the Tangerines do.

Goals: Once again, if Adam stays fit, he will get crucial goals - penalties, free-kicks, tap-ins, and if he can add a few more to his current tally of nine league goals, they’ve got a great chance of surviving. Unfair not to mention DJ Campbell, who’s also scored nine, and when he returns from suspension, Blackpool’s attack will be more potent.

Verdict: Safe, just. With their remaining fixtures, the home matches against Wigan, Newcastle and Stoke stand out as season defining contests.

Aston Villa, current position: 16th, played - 31, points - 34

Momentum: The Aston Villa fans have made it clear how they feel about Gerard Houllier. The Frenchman has shot himself in the foot on a number of occasions: first, carelessly indulging in his past, stating he would rather lose to Liverpool than any other club, and then, somewhat bizarrely leaving out key players as his side surrendered to Manchester City in the FA Cup. Since that 3-0 defeat at Eastlands, the Villains have lost at Bolton, and more painfully were beaten by neighbours West Brom at Villa Park. Chief Executive Paul Faulkner has backed the under fire boss, and now the Villa faithful must do the same.

THAT Player: Ashley Young. Villa boast several young talented English players, and none more talented than their versatile midfielder. He’s attracted attention from the likes of Liverpool and Manchester United, and therefore his final role as a Villa player could be to inspire his side to the two or three wins they require for safety.

Goals: Darren Bent. He’s scored five times since joining Villa, and with talent from wide and behind him, he’ll get plenty of chances.

Verdict: Safe. Is the phrase, “too good to go down”, a kiss of death? With the players they’ve got, they should be in the top ten.   

Birmingham, current position: 15th, played - 30, points - 34

Momentum: Winning the Carling Cup will give Blues fans many happy memories of that day at Wembley, but the bigger picture is that it may have dented their chances of survival. Since the final on February 27th, they’ve suffered defeats to fellow strugglers West Brom and Wigan, and lifting that trophy must seem a distant memory. The win against Bolton on Saturday was crucial, and with struggling Sunderland visiting St Andrews, and a trip to Ewood Park in the coming weeks, McCleish’s side need to continue the momentum.

THAT player: Craig Gardner - Local lad and Blues fan, represents what Alex McCleish demands from his players. His passion, but more importantly, his ability, could prove to be crucial.

Goals: Only Wigan have scored less this season, with Nikola Zigic and Cameron Jerome failing to have the desired effect.

Verdict: Relegated. Lack of goals being the determining factor.

Blackburn, current position: 14th, played - 31, points - 34

Momentum: The award for Strangest Decision of the Season goes to the Blackburn Rovers chicken loving owners, who thought getting rid of Sam Allardyce would be a good idea. They replaced the vastly experienced Allardyce with the vastly inexperienced Steve Kean, and that decision could come back to haunt them come May. Winless since January 23rd, Rovers are in big trouble unless they start winning.

THAT player: Chris Samba - inspirational captain and defender, and is the second highest scoring defender in the league with four goals (behind Robert Huth). He may need a few more goals to keep his side in the league.

Goals: Rovers don’t have a prolific scorer, which could be a big problem for Steve Kean. However, they do have players capable of scoring - the young Canadian David Hoilett looks a good prospect.

Verdict: Relegated. They’ll need at least two wins from their remaining games, and I can’t see them getting that.

West Brom, current position: 13th, played - 31, points - 36 

Momentum: Roberto Di Matteo may consider himself a tad unlucky to have been sacked, but Roy Hodgson has steadied the ship somewhat, and is still unbeaten as Baggies manager. The win against Liverpool on Saturday was Hodgson’s first home victory as boss, and the side looks more defensively sound. This unbeaten run will only boost confidence within the camp as they head towards the business end of the season.

THAT player: Peter Odemwingie has scored almost a quarter of West Brom’s goals this season, and if he can get a few more, it’ll go a long way in keeping them in the league.

Goals: Aside from the Nigerian, the Baggies do have plenty of players capable of scoring, even if the stats suggest otherwise. No-one apart from Odemwingie has managed more than four league goals this season, but James Morrison and Chris Brunt will get on the score-sheet.

Verdict: Safe. They’ve got a tricky run-in, with Chelsea and Spurs around the corner, but Roy Hodgson will keep it tight at the back and earn enough points to keep them up.

PREDICTION:

13th West Brom
14th West Ham
15th Aston Villa
16th Wolves
17th Blackpool
18th Birmingham
19th Blackburn
20th Wigan

How to beat Barcelona...

Last night, Arsenal were knocked out of the Champions League by a far superior Barcelona side. There’s no shame in that; I don’t think anyone will succeed in overcoming the Catalan giants in this year’s tournament. They aren’t perfect though - Arsenal scored six times in the four encounters between the two, and possibly should have scored more. If you attack them, you might score, but by doing that you’re leaving yourself open at the back and they’ll probably score more than you.

Jose Mourinho proved with his Inter side last season that Barcelona are beatable, but that was courtesy of one of the finest defensive displays ever witnessed in the Champions League. To beat them by attacking them is another thing. It’s an almighty task for any opponent, and you could argue that succeeding against them is as psychological as it is technical. You need: a) patience, b) concentration, and c) most importantly, luck. In the second leg at the Nou Camp, Arsenal managed, at most, one out of three.

It must be incredibly frustrating chasing shadows as most teams do when facing Guardiola’s side - mentally exhausting, and I have sympathy with Arsenal’s attack, who failed to manage one shot on goal last night. Once they managed to get the ball off them, they couldn’t find space; they were surrounded by blue and red, and on the rare occasion that space became available, they couldn’t take advantage.

So how do you beat Barcelona?

1) Pace

Arsenal looked most dangerous when running at the Barcelona defence. I thought Wilshere and Nasri were excellent - Nasri made several dashes down the left, and one of those led to the corner from which Busquets headed into his own net. For me, this highlighted how much they missed Walcott last night. He has his critics - decision making perhaps isn’t his forte, but his lethal pace frightens the life out of defences. Barcelona play so high up the pitch, so there is a vast area of space to run into if they give the ball away (see Bendtner goal last season).

2) Set Pieces

Barcelona don’t do set pieces. When they get a corner, they normally play it short, or look for a pass to start another 200 pass move. So inevitably, defending corners makes them uncomfortable. They aren’t a big side, so any crosses into the box can be a problem, as seen by the panic which resulted in a clumsy own goal last night. Nikola Zigic is a pretty hopeless player, but Barcelona would have been scared stiff of him if he was in an Arsenal shirt last night.

3) Don’t play them at their own game

They have the three most technically gifted players in world football: Xavi, Iniesta, and Messi. The speed in which they can find space, control the ball with the perfect touch, and then play it to a team-mate is incredible. Arsenal are excellent at this type of football; the best in the Premier League, but they struggled to string together three passes in a row last night. Off the ball, Barcelona are as good as they are with the ball. They don’t worry about the player who is free, they just make sure the ball doesn’t get to him. This makes it even more important to play to their weaknesses - pace, width and height.

4) Have a full strength first eleven  

There isn’t much a manager can do to guarantee the fitness of his first choice eleven. It’s a long season, and if you want to compete in all competitions, you will get injuries. Arsenal certainly would have been a greater threat to Barcelona had Walcott been available, and a fully fit Cesc Fabregas may have influenced the game as he would have hoped. Whether Arsenal would have beaten them is another matter, but there are enough frailties in Barcelona’s defence to suggest that they are far from invincible.

5) Get lucky

Arsenal had their share of luck over the two legs: Messi had a perfectly good goal ruled out for offside in the first leg, and at the Nou Camp, the same player may have felt hard done by when the referee didn’t give a penalty for a blatant foul. Whether it was inside the box is debatable, but it was one of many decisions that referee Massimo Busacca got horribly wrong. The major piece of luck that Arsenal did not receive, was the crazy second yellow card shown to Dutch striker Robin Van Persie for kicking the ball away after the whistle was blown. Whether he heard the whistle or not is irrelevant; how the referee deemed it as time-wasting is baffling. It’s not like he kicked the ball into row Z, and it wasn’t the 89th minute, so wasting time at this point in the game wouldn’t have been in Van Persie’s mind. However, common sense didn’t prevail, and the Dutchman was sent off, making Arsenal’s task near impossible. If he had stayed on the pitch, would he have converted the chance that Nicklas Bendtner missed? Possibly. It would have been a win coated with fortune for the Gunners, but injustice in football is common, and in most cases, required, to beat the mighty Barcelona.

Mighty - yes. Perfect - no. They have weaknesses, and if you try to exploit those flaws; run at them and get some high crosses into the box, they are beatable. However, you’ve also got to hope that they have an off day and you get the rub of the green. Possible. Unlikely, but possible.