FIVE Reasons Why England WILL Win Euro 2012

1. No Expectations

Between 1996 and 2010, the confidence among the English press and public was unmatched by any other nation. We were going to win every tournament because we had the best players, the luckiest managers, David Beckham's right boot, Wayne Rooney's fearlessness, Rio's braids, Peter Crouch's hair pulling abilities etc. The golden generation was born, but failed to achieve again and again and again. And now they are no more.

A new generation is born, made up of some of the old: Liverpool legend Steven Gerrard and Chelsea's disorderly duo John Terry and Ashley Cole; some of the new: the much maligned Jordan Henderson and the much hyped Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain; and some true English grit: Tottenham's Scott Parker and City's James Milner.

It's not as attractive on paper as it was 10 years ago, but this is a good thing. This new generation can be fearless. No-one (apart from me) reckons they can go beyond the quarter finals. It's a 'win-win' situation (unless they get humiliated by Ukraine, in which case it's very much 'lose').

2. Anti-Football is the New Football

If England win every game of the Euros 1-0, no-one will complain. Roy Hodgson will have his side so gloriously organised, that the likes of Franck Ribery, Arjen Robben and Andres Iniesta will dread playing England. Seriously. Imagine having James Milner and Scott Parker harassing you every two minutes, and that's before John Terry's even within 10 metres of you.

The Belgium game has taught us that England will sit and frustrate the opposition, and then use the likes of Young, Welbeck, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Walcott and Defoe to counter-attack, grab a goal and then defend, defend, defend. Gloriously.

I might put a bet on England winning every game 1-0.

3. The Chelsea Factor

If it can work for Chelsea, it can work for England. I still lie awake some nights wondering how exactly they beat Barcelona. It defies logic. But on that fateful night at the Nou Camp, Di Matteo got his tactics spot on. And they did it again in the final. Football isn't about possession, chances created, corners won etc, it's about who gets more goals.

If England get injuries and/or red cards, the Chelsea lads can remind the side what their 10 men did against Barca, or what their depleted squad managed against Bayern.

The likes of John Terry and Ashley Cole can bring their winning mentality to the national team. If it goes to penalties, England will win. Even against Germany.

4. Steven Gerrard Will Inspire, Wayne Rooney Will Return

With the unfortunate departure of Frank Lampard and Gareth Barry due to injury, a HUGE responsibility has been placed on the shoulders of our favourite Scouser (Gerrard, not Rooney). Luckily, Stevie G LOVES responsibility. Remember in 2005 when he won the Champions League single-handedly for Liverpool? And don't tell me Traore, Smicer and Luis Garcia had anything to do with it.

Now Liverpool are rubbish, and Stevie probably won't get another opportunity to lift a proper trophy (perhaps the Capital One Cup – COCup?), so now is his time to take the proverbial bull by the horns and lead England to glory.

Meanwhile, while England bravely and stubbornly hold France and Sweden to 0-0 draws, Wayne Rooney sits and ponders that time he kicked a Montenegrin, and prays that the Montenegrin-kicking incident won't be detrimental to England's hopes of qualification. Wazza returns for game three against the mighty Ukraine, and following a great season at United, he shall come into the side and inspire England to a glorious 1-0 win (Jordan Henderson with a 93^rd minute winner).

We therefore qualify for the knock-out rounds, beating Spain in the quarters, Holland in the semis, and then Germany in the final. Easy. Rooney with the winning penalty. A statue of Rooney is later unveiled outside Wembley.

5. It's been one of the years

I can't recall a season as bizarre as this one has been. The Premier League has thrown up some, quite frankly, ludicrous scorelines and situations, and if that wasn't enough, the 'Hollywood couldn't have made it up' end to the season eclipsed every other final day. And then the Chelsea thing happened. Crazy. I'd love to travel back to August and tell a group of football fans what's to come, and then see their reaction.

Well, guess what? It's not over yet. There's still a European Championship around the corner, and I can't accept that it will be a predictable tournament. Spain, Germany and Holland are the three favourites, but this is the year of weird. Something odd is going to happen. I can feel it.

England – Euro 2012 Champions.

My England Squad for Euro 2012

Roy Hodgson announces his squad for Euro 2012 tomorrow. Lots of tough decisions to make. Take JT and Rio? Leave one behind? Leave both?! Which strikers will he take? Who's injured/unwilling to play?

Here's my 23, with the following assumptions:

• Foster doesn't want to go
• Scholes wants to go (you never know!)
• Parker, Cahill, Walker and Bent are fit enough
• Roy decides John Terry is a dreadful person and a disruptive influence

KEEPERS

Joe Hart 

Scott Carson

Jack Butland

Additional Notes: We're screwed if Hart gets injured/suspended.

DEFENDERS

Rio Ferdinand

Ashley Cole

Micah Richards 

Gary Cahill 

Phil Jones

Leighton Baines

Kyle Walker 

Joleon Lescott

Additional Notes: This is the area where England are fairly blessed. Although you'd have to say there are no guaranteed starters at centre back.

MIDFIELDERS

Steven Gerrard (c)

Frank Lampard 

Scott Parker 

Gareth Barry 

Paul Scholes 

Adam Johnson 

Theo Walcott 

Ashley Young

Additional Notes: If Parker isn't fit, I'd chuck in Oxlade Chamberlain. Stewart Downing and Jordan Henderson are rubbish.

STRIKERS

Andy Carroll 

Wayne Rooney 

Danny Welbeck 

Darren Bent 

Additional Notes: My brother Grant Holt misses out, but only just. If Bent's not fit, brother Holt gets the nod. Sorry Crouchy.

And the starting XI for France on June 11^th (remember that Rooney's suspended):

4-2-3-1

Hart, Richards, Ferdinand, Lescott, Cole, Parker, Scholes*, Gerrard, Walcott, Young, Carroll

*If Scholes doesn't go, Lampard plays instead.

What do you think?

Fantasy Football Leagues - Where Geniuses Are Discovered...

Football fans love to get it right...

Whether it's through betting, competing in fantasy football leagues, or simply debating about last night's match with friends, a correct prediction can earn the football fan some invaluable bragging rights. It doesn't necessarily prove one's knowledge of the game (although most supporters like to think it does) but it allows the fan a moment of self-righteousness – the “I told you so”.

It's what makes football so exciting (and betting such a lucrative industry) – the unpredictable nature of 90 minutes of sport.

Most predictions and bets are educated guesses based on the punter's knowledge of the subject, alongside a 'gut feeling' and obviously the prize for getting it right – cash, or the short-lived respect of peers.

I'm a timid gambler; I'll only place a bet every now and then (someone get me a medal!) and even then it's just a quid or two. But I do enjoy the rush. I correctly predicted the first scorer in the Brighton v Watford game the other week (seriously, where's my medal?) and I was chuffed. For about half an hour I was the most knowledgeable football fan in the world. In reality, I picked a name out of a hat. Okay, it was one of the more likely scorers, but ultimately it was a guess.

When it comes to making predictions, I think I prefer fantasy football leagues. They offer fans the chance to prove their knowledge over the course of a season, and there's less of the 'wild stab in the dark' element that you can get with betting.

These leagues seem to have been going for years and years, but the last time I took part you couldn't do fancy things like transfers, joining private leagues, and swapping players in your squad on such a regular basis like you can now.

I'm now addicted, and my Saturday morning's have become devoted (slight exaggeration, only slight) to frantically deciding who should be my captain (who get double points). This decision is influenced by several key factors:

1. Who will my captain's opponents be? If Wayne Rooney is in my squad, and Manchester United are playing Wolves at Old Trafford, Wazza will almost certainly get the nod.

2. Who is in top form? If Fernando Torres scored a hat-trick last week, maybe he'll be extra confident tomorrow (this is a high-risk strategy – it is easy to be seduced by last week's points. Torres probably won't score).
3. Does the rival in my private league have that player in their team? My bold decision going into the final weekend of the season is to purchase Tottenham's Rafael Van der Vaart and make him my skipper. Very few of the other players in my private league have the Dutchman in their team, so if he has a good day (which he probably won't), I'll be one of the few to benefit from his points.

This new found addiction adds a new dimension to my weekends. I've always enjoyed the goals and drama that a Saturday afternoon brings, but now I'm also keeping tabs on how my selected eleven are getting on.

But I suppose this is where fantasy football has a down side. My interest in the actual football has been overshadowed by my obsession with getting it right. The shock of a Wigan win against Manchester United isn't enough for me anymore. I need to know if Victor Moses got the winner. If Moses got the winner, that's four glorious points coming my way. Let it be Victor! Oh….it was Shaun Maloney.

I'd rather ignore the frustration or joy that goes along with fantasy football, and concentrate purely on the drama of the day's football. The twists and turns of the Premiership make it the best league in the world. Let's focus on that, rather than all this gambling.

But we all know I'll be back next year. Fretting over whether Sergio Aguero should be captain. And if I end top of my private league, then you can ignore that last paragraph; I am the great all-knowing football genius. I look forward to receiving my call from the FA.

Ben Holt, Roy Hodgson's Number Two

If you can see past the fog of the John Terry saga, a decent England team is emerging

Amidst the chaos surrounding the FA's controversial decision to strip John Terry of the captain's armband, those of us watching football were treated to some terrific displays from some other Englishmen who hopefully will be representing their country in the summer.

What a pity that the Italian's weekend of scouting was overshadowed by this ongoing nuisance.

The whole situation has been handled disgracefully. John Terry shouldn't have been reinstated as England captain in the first place, but the FA have essentially found him guilty of racial abuse five months before he stands trial. And in doing this, Fabio Capello's already fading authority has taken another blow to the head.

Capello understandably doesn't like someone else doing his job, and his public show of dissatisfaction on Italian TV is another example of this horrible mismatch. Fabio and the FA should have broken up a long time ago. 

More worrying perhaps, is the division within the national team. England's two most experienced central defenders aren't talking for understandable reasons, and although everyone else is sensibly keeping quiet, there are views and attitudes within the squad that will be hard to conceal when they meet prior to the Holland friendly at the end of the month.

It's a dreadful mess, but it's not as if Ferdinand and Terry's inclusion in the squad is crucial. There are plenty of suitable alternatives. Lescott and Jagielka defended admirably in the fortunate 1-0 win against the world champions Spain, while Tottenham's Michael Dawson and Ledley King were immense last night in the goalless draw at Anfield. The watching Capello must've been impressed. Other central defensive options include Chelsea's new boy Gary Cahill and United's Phil Jones and Chris Smalling.

I doubt Capello will rule Ferdinand and Terry out of his summer plans, but neither have been particularly convincing for their clubs this season. Would it really be that bad if they were omitted?

Meanwhile, three other English performances stood out for me this weekend.

Danny Welbeck has been extremely impressive over the last few weeks, demonstrating pace, strength and composure against the top sides; something that Daniel Sturridge has struggled to do. Welbeck must be challenging Darren Bent for a starting place.

Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain has rapidly cemented his place in Wenger's side, proving in a handful of starts to be more effective than the frustrating Theo Walcott. Perhaps it's too early to be talking about the 18 year old as an England starter in Poland/Ukraine, but his maturity at such a young age is very promising. Capello's wildcard?

Scott Parker is certain to play an important role for England in the summer, whether as captain or not we shall see; I suspect not. But he performs tirelessly for Spurs every single week, and the England manager will want him wrapped in cotton wool until June.

These top performances certainly bode well for England supporters, but unfortunately the off the field headlines are obscuring our view of what's happening on the pitch. If you can see past the fog, a fairly decent England team is emerging.

The Road to the Amex - Interview with Tommy Elphick

When Brighton and Hove Albion defender Tommy Elphick was stretchered off on the final day of the 2010/2011 season, it was a shock to Seagulls fans to hear that the centre back had ruptured his Achilles tendon; the same injury as former England captain David Beckham suffered while on loan at AC Milan.

Achilles ruptures are most commonly seen among sportsmen in the latter end of their career, and so while unfortunate for the 34 year old Beckham, it wasn't a freak injury.

However, it was certainly an unusual injury for the 23 year old to pick up at this stage in his career.

“It's a real awkward injury – not really one you see at my age, but it has happened and it's a slow one, but it's coming along nicely, so not too long now”, Elphick told me back in September.

Unfortunately for the defender, who was awarded Brighton's player of the 2007/2008 season, a bad reaction to the initial surgery means he'll be out of action for the rest of the campaign in Albion's return to the Championship. Another slice of poor fortune for the Brighton born player, who was devastated to miss out on the club's first ever match at the £93 million American Express Community Stadium.

“That was the hardest thing for me, seeing the lads run out against Tottenham and Doncaster in the first few games. I was really gutted that I wasn't involved. It's not so bad if you haven't been picked through form because you've got someone to blame like yourself. But there's no rhyme or reason for the injury I've got and it was just really hard to swallow.”

But despite the latest setback, it's hard not to be impressed by his attitude and focus on getting fit.

His weekends are now spent watching sport, and when I join him once again early on a Saturday afternoon, he's flicking between the horse racing and the Championship match between Leicester City and Portsmouth.

He's knowledgeable and chatty, always more than happy to discuss his beloved Liverpool, and he welcomes the news that Blackburn have taken a shock 2-0 lead at bitter rivals Manchester United.

While he loves watching the Premier League, the Championship is his focus, observing players that he may come against next season (if Albion stay in the division), and that's a big part of his recovery.

“You have to maximise your time when you're out injured; do everything you can physically as well as stimulating the brain, watching as many games as you can. So at the moment I'll be watching Gordon and Dunky [Gordon Greer and Lewis Dunk – Brighton's current centre back pairing], seeing what they're doing and what they're not doing, and then you watch the strikers that you'll be playing against next season. So there's no excuse for not knowing who you'll be playing against.”

Elphick's mature approach to his injury is even more impressive considering the delay to his comeback. He was initially set to return to action by the end of last year, but an allergic reaction to the stitching used in the original surgery meant he required a second operation.

“It was a case of going out there and being opened up again, and just clearing everything out and doing it with a different material which dissolves over time. That's how it should have been done in the first place but it wasn't and I'm lucky enough to be in really good hands this time.”

Extremely good hands in fact: the hands of Finnish surgeon Sakari Orava who operated on David Beckham back in 2010, as well as double Olympic gold medallist Haile Gebrselassie and French World Cup winner Didier Deschamps.

With Elphick suffering no ill effects from the surgery last month, he can now concentrate fully on getting fit. While his Albion team-mates look to consolidate their place in the Championship over the next few months (or even better: achieve promotion to the Premiership), Tommy will be preparing for next season. In February he is set to continue his recovery at Lilleshall Sports Rehab unit in Shropshire, where he'll stay for four weeks, before returning to Brighton where he hopes to return to his maximum pace and strength.

Elphick's contract at Albion expires at the end of the year, but he's in talks with the club at the moment, and he's keen to put pen to paper.

“The manager and the chairman have been really good to me. I can't really comment on how long we're talking but it's all work in progress at the moment.”

Assuming there are no hitches with the contract negotiations, Elphick will be available to fight for his place in Gus Poyet's side next season. But for now he's concentrating on Albion's performance this year, as every win, loss or draw can affect what league he'll be playing football in when he returns.

The Seagulls have had a mixed first half to the campaign, topping the table after six unbeaten matches, but then slipping to 11th after a winless run which lasted nine matches. But Elphick is quick to dispute my claim that it's been an up and down season so far.

“I don't think it's been up and down, I think it's very much been up. 18 months ago, if you'd have said where we are now; it's unbelievable the work the gaffer and his staff have done.”

Two years ago, Albion were in serious danger of dropping into League Two: the fourth tier of English football. But now, they're just four points from the play-off places in a largely unpredictable division.

“We're in with a massive shout for the play-offs still. I think we're just one or two (players) away from being a solid top six side. But then we've had major injuries this year; I think once we get everyone back fit, plus if the gaffer decides to add in January, then watch out. How far we've come is magnificent.”

Elphick's optimism about the future of the club is justified, considering the progress made under the stewardship of Poyet, who moved down to the south coast in November 2009.

So it's a big unknown what the next campaign will bring for Elphick. Perhaps he'll be playing Premier League football. For now though, after a missing a full season, his aim is purely to be playing football again.

Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Hull City, Saturday 15th October, Kick-off: 5.30pm

Sports Saturday with Ben Holt, 2-6pm, Juice 107.2, www.juicebrighton.com

Follow us on Twitter: @sports_saturday

Listen to the podcast: mixcloud.com/sports_saturday

Build up to the game begins at 4.30pm, featuring interviews with Gus Poyet, Scotland striker Craig Mackail-Smith and full back Inigo Calderon.

 

Despite earning just a point from their previous four league matches, Brighton are still sat in the play-off positions, five points behind leaders Southampton. The last month has seen Albion's defensive frailties highlighted somewhat, with nine goals conceded in the last three games, and the international break will have been welcomed by many connected with the club.

Two weeks off to reflect and regroup; to analyse why their brilliant start has been halted.

That brilliant start featured impressive league wins at Cardiff, Pompey and Bristol City, as well as home victories against Doncaster and Peterborough. The summer signings were gelling; Buckley, Mackail-Smith and Hoskins all playing well and scoring important goals (when fit), and even Premiership sides were being truly tested in Carling Cup visits to the Amex.

Firstly, a memorable night in August, when Steve Bruce's Sunderland were deservedly put to the sword thanks to an extra-time winner from Mackail-Smith, and then a month later, a thrilling third round tie with Liverpool. A superb second half performance earned Albion plenty of admirers, if not the victory, and Craig Noone's energetic and skilful display earned himself a red shirt with his hero's name on the back.

Since that night, Brighton have played three – Leeds, Palace and Ipswich, and have only managed a point. Gus Poyet certainly wouldn't make excuses; his attitude has always been to fearlessly blame his own rather than external factors. He described the Ipswich match as “Premiership players against League One players” - the kind of honesty that a lot of managers would avoid.

It's far from a disaster. It's a blip. Only the most irrational Albion supporters would have expected a repeat of last season's performance. This is the Championship, and the fact that only Middlesbrough are unbeaten after ten games, suggests that even the very best sides in the division will at some stage struggle.

What is important now for Albion is to get their confidence back. The home defeat to Palace hurt a lot, and the 3-1 loss to Ipswich didn't help to ease the pain. They can consider themselves lucky to remain in such a positive position in the table, but a couple more defeats will see them closer to the wrong end.

Poyet's attitude is if it ain't broke, don't fix it. For six or seven matches, he hasn't felt the need to make many changes. Now perhaps is the time for Gus to move people around and take a look at other players, “When you have a bad run of results, you have a chance [to get in the team]”. Former Spanish international Vicente may now get a run in the side to show his class on a regular basis. He's a certainty to make his first home start against Hull City on Saturday evening, and Poyet will hope that his new star player will set the standard for the rest.

In contrast to Albion, Hull are in excellent form, with fourteen points from a possible eighteen launching them up the table into sixth, a place below the Seagulls. Craig Mackail-Smith will offer advice to his defensive team-mates about Hull striker Aaron McClean, who he knows well from their days together at London Road, whilst Robert Koren and Nicky Barmby offer Premiership and international experience.

Another tough game; they're all tough, but if Albion want to get back on track, now is the time to do it. A win could see them rise as high as 3^rd, a defeat – possibly mid table.

Portsmouth vs Brighton & Hove Albion, Saturday 13th August, Kick-Off: 3pm

Sports Saturday with Ben Holt, 2-6pm, Juice 107.2, www.juicebrighton.com

Follow us on Twitter: @sports_saturday

Listen to the podcast: mixcloud.com/sports_saturday
 
Build up to the game begins at 2pm, featuring interviews with Gus Poyet and midfielder Gary Dicker. From 3pm we'll have regular updates from Fratton Park from our Sports Reporter Loz, as well as all the latest from the Premiership and Championship.

 

Last Saturday's season opener against Doncaster Rovers was the perfect way to start life at the Amex. Over 20,000 people at Falmer enjoyed a thrilling last gasp win for Albion, as new signing Will Buckley became an instant fans favourite with two late goals to seal their first three points of the season.

Gus Poyet's team showed many qualities which would suggest they are well suited to life in the Championship: strength in depth, fighting spirit, patience; but even the most biased Seagulls supporter would struggle to argue that luck didn't play a huge part in Saturday's win. Rovers bossed the first half, and when Lewis Dunk's untidy challenge ended striker Billy Sharp's afternoon, Sean O'Driscoll's side lost momentum and couldn't find the form which gave them a deserved first half lead.

Things got worse for Donny when then lost another striker to injury, with James Hayter stretchered off after an accidental clash with Inigo Calderon. With all three substitutions made, Rovers went down to ten men, and Albion were able to grab a stoppage time winner.

But credit to Albion for making use of the good fortune that came their way. It might be a sign of things to come for the Seagulls; with the attacking strength on the bench, there are always options for Poyet if a goal is needed. It'll be interesting to see if they turn out to be the Championship's comeback kings this season.

The two players that arguably changed the game on Saturday both started the match on the bench. Whilst Will Buckley grabbed the headlines with his two goals, Craig Noone was equally effective, and provided the perfect through ball for Buckley's winner in the 98^th minute. Both men started Tuesday night's Carling Cup win over Gillingham, and with Buckley on the left and Noone on the right, the Gills defence were given a torrid time.

They compliment each other well, with Buckley's pace and strength, and Noone's trickery and vision; similar at times to watching Bale and Lennon at Spurs. With Kazenga Lua Lua a doubt for Saturday's trip to Fratton Park, we might get another opportunity to see what damage they can do, this time to the Pompey defence.

Whilst Albion have enjoyed two wins so far this season, Portsmouth haven't had the best of starts. They salvaged a point at Middlesbrough last weekend thanks to a last gasp Luke Varney equaliser, but then got outplayed by League Two Barnet as they were knocked out of the Carling Cup.

Despite Pompey's poor start, Steve Cotterill has plenty of experience and ability in his depleted squad, and Albion will need to show as much fighting spirit on Saturday afternoon as they did seven days earlier at the Amex.

Brighton & Hove Albion XI vs. Doncaster Rovers (6th August):

Ankergren, Greer (c), Dunk, Painter, Calderon, Bridcutt, Dicker, Sparrow (Buckley 75), Lua Lua (Noone 46), Barnes, Mackail-Smith; SUBS NOT USED: Brezovan, Vincelot, Navarro

Injury doubts:

Lua Lua - Hamstring

Hoskins - Hip